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1994-11-13
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37KB
Date: Tue, 19 Jul 94 22:09:18 PDT
From: Info-Hams Mailing List and Newsgroup <info-hams@ucsd.edu>
Errors-To: Info-Hams-Errors@UCSD.Edu
Reply-To: Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu
Precedence: Bulk
Subject: Info-Hams Digest V94 #815
To: Info-Hams
Info-Hams Digest Tue, 19 Jul 94 Volume 94 : Issue 815
Today's Topics:
Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 July
Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 July
Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 July
Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 July
Send Replies or notes for publication to: <Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu>
Send subscription requests to: <Info-Hams-REQUEST@UCSD.Edu>
Problems you can't solve otherwise to brian@ucsd.edu.
Archives of past issues of the Info-Hams Digest are available
(by FTP only) from UCSD.Edu in directory "mailarchives/info-hams".
We trust that readers are intelligent enough to realize that all text
herein consists of personal comments and does not represent the official
policies or positions of any party. Your mileage may vary. So there.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Thu, 14 Jul 1994 01:12:32 MDT
From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!galaxy.ucr.edu!library.ucla.edu!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 July
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
13 JULY, 1994
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 JULY, 1994
--------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 194, 07/13/94
10.7 FLUX=081.4 90-AVG=080 SSN=081 BKI=0010 0111 BAI=001
BGND-XRAY=A6.1 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=2010 1122 PAI=004
BOU-DEV=004,004,006,002,004,006,008,009 DEV-AVG=005 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= B4.4 @ 1719UT XRAY-MIN= A5.5 @ 1238UT XRAY-AVG= A8.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 0715UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1905UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 2055UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1455UT PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55250NT @ 1507UT BOUTF-MIN=55222NT @ 1938UT BOUTF-AVG=55241NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+097,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+149NT@ 1827UT GOES6-MIN=N:-036NT@ 0035UT G6-AVG=+126,+033,-013
FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,080;SESC:080,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/012,020,025
KFCST=3323 2332 3344 3433 27DAY-AP=006,009 27DAY-KP=3121 2212 1223 3332
WARNINGS=*SWF
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 12 JUL 94 was 40.1.
The Full Kp Indices for 12 JUL 94 are: 1+ 1- 0o 0o 1- 2- 1o 2-
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 12 JUL 94 are: 5 3 0 1 3 7 4 7
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence value is not available.
SPECIAL NOTICE REGARDING JUPITER AND PERIODIC COMET SHOEMAKER-LEVY 9
--------------------------------------------------------------------
JUPITER - PERIODIC COMET SHOEMAKER-LEVY 9 (1993E)
R. M. WEST, EUROPEAN SOUTHERN OBSERVATORY, HAS MEASURED THE
NUCLEI ON CCD IMAGES OBTAINED DURING JULY 1-8 BY O. HAINAUT,
R. SCHULZ, M. CAROLLO, C. ALARD AND A. CIMATTI WITH THE
3.5-M NEW TECHNOLOGY TELESCOPE AND 1.5-M DANISH TELESCOPE.
REDUCTIONS WERE WITH THE HELP OF SOUTHERN SKY ATLAS PLATES
AND PROVISIONAL HIPPARCOS REFERENCE-STAR POSITIONS PROVIDED
BY M. PERRYMAN AND C. TURON. F. NAKANO, SUMOTO, JAPAN, HAS
COMPUTED IMPROVED ORBITS AND THE FOLLOWING TIMES (CORRECTED
FOR LIGHT TIME) FOR THE IMPACTS ON JUPITER: A = 21,
JULY 16.826 UT; B = 20, 17.113; C = 19, 17.287;
D = 18, 17.483; E = 17, 17.625; F = 16, 18.014;
G = 15, 18.308; H = 14, 18.805; K = 12, 19.425;
L = 11, 19.919; N = 9, 20.428; P = 8 (= P2 = 8B), 20.624;
Q = 7 (= Q1 = 7A), 20.831; R = 6, 21.223; S = 5, 21.627;
T = 4, 21.758; U = 3, 21.907; V = 2, 22.166; W = 1, 22.330.
COMPARISON WITH COMPUTATIONS BY P. W. CHODAS AND D. K. YEOMANS,
JET PROPULSION LABORATORY, SUGGESTS THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS
NOW AROUND +/- 0.005 DAY FOR ALMOST ALL THESE NUCLEI, THE
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY BEING MAINLY BECAUSE MOST OF THE
EARLIER OBSERVATIONS WERE REDUCED USING THE STSCI GUIDE
STAR CATALOGUE. USING THE TIDAL-DISRUPTION MODEL OF
Z. SEKANINA, CHODAS AND YEOMANS PROVIDE LESS CERTAIN IMPACT
TIMES FOR LOST AND LESS WELL OBSERVED FRAGMENTS: J = 13,
JULY 19.11 UT; M = 10, 20.24; P1 = 8A, 20.69; Q2 = 7B, 20.81.
THEY ADD THAT A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF PARTICLES BEYOND THE
EASTERN END OF THE NUCLEAR TRAIN SHOULD NOW ALREADY HAVE
BEGUN TO STRIKE JUPITER.
1994 JULY 9 (6017) BRIAN G. MARSDEN
CENTRAL BUREAU FOR ASTRONOMICAL TELEGRAMS
INTERNATIONAL ASTRONOMICAL UNION
POSTAL ADDRESS: CENTRAL BUREAU FOR ASTRONOMICAL TELEGRAMS
SMITHSONIAN ASTROPHYSICAL OBSERVATORY, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138, U.S.A.
TELEPHONE 617-495-7244/7440/7444 (FOR EMERGENCY USE ONLY)
TWX 710-320-6842 ASTROGRAM CAM EASYLINK 62794505
MARSDEN@CFA OR GREEN@CFA (.SPAN, .BITNET OR .HARVARD.EDU)
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------
Solar activity was at very low levels.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be
at very low to low levels.
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
Event probabilities 14 jul-16 jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 jul-16 jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 10/15/15
Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 10/15/15
Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05
HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
Near-normal propagation is expected to continue over the next
24 hours. High-latitude minor signal degradation may begin to
be observed on 15 July in response to a recurrent disturbance.
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================
REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE
7746 N12W71 157 0090 CAO 05 006 BETA
7747 S16W65 151 0020 AXX 01 001 ALPHA
7749 S08W83 169 0020 AXX 01 001 ALPHA
7750 S16W83 169 0040 BXO 07 003 BETA
7751 S12E15 071 0020 CRO 05 007 BETA
7753 S12E39 047 0020 CRO 04 003 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 JULY TO 16 JULY
NMBR LAT LO
NONE
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 JULY, 1994
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP
1647 1722 1732 7746 N12W69 B4.4 SF 220
POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 JULY, 1994
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV
13/A0027 B1241 S11E37 DSF
13/ 2146 2157 2230 S12E18 LDE B3.0 44
INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN
92 N00E06 S04E01 N20W26 N24W01 097 ISO POS 012 10830A
93 N63E56 N38W02 N38W02 N70E46 061 EXT POS 026 10830A
SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- ---------
12 Jul: 0547 0555 0604 B2.4
0911 0919 0926 C6.0 SF 7746 N12W52
1040 1058 1103 B1.8
1246 1250 1253 B1.7
1336 1340 1344 B1.1
1527 1530 1534 B1.0
2245 2250 2303 SF 7746 N12W61
REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%)
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------
Region 7746: 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (28.6)
Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 005 (71.4)
Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.
EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ ---------------------------
12 Jul: 0911 0919 0926 C6.0 SF 7746 N12W52 II,III,V
NOTES:
All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max,
and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After.
All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.
Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:
II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
III = Type III Sweep
IV = Type IV Sweep
V = Type V Sweep
Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
Loop = Loop Prominence System,
Spray = Limb Spray,
Surge = Bright Limb Surge,
EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.
** End of Daily Report **
------------------------------
Date: Thu, 14 Jul 1994 23:25:58 MDT
From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!swrinde!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 July
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
14 JULY, 1994
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 JULY, 1994
--------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 195, 07/14/94
10.7 FLUX=081.9 90-AVG=080 SSN=090 BKI=2234 4434 BAI=019
BGND-XRAY=A6.8 FLU1=1.5E+06 FLU10=3.9E+04 PKI=1124 5545 PAI=024
BOU-DEV=013,011,021,046,061,063,039,067 DEV-AVG=040 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= C2.3 @ 2000UT XRAY-MIN= A6.0 @ 0239UT XRAY-AVG= B1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 1200UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 2010UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.5%
PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2020UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1635UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55260NT @ 2342UT BOUTF-MIN=55212NT @ 1820UT BOUTF-AVG=55238NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+080,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+170NT@ 2008UT GOES6-MIN=N:-076NT@ 1203UT G6-AVG=+107,+034,-025
FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,080;SESC:080,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/025,025,015
KFCST=3345 4443 3345 4443 27DAY-AP=009,015 27DAY-KP=1223 3332 3443 2322
WARNINGS=*SWF
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 13 JUL 94 was 42.0.
The Full Kp Indices for 13 JUL 94 are: 2- 0+ 1- 0+ 1- 1+ 2- 2-
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 13 JUL 94 are: 7 2 3 2 3 5 6 6
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 14 JUL is: 3.5E+06
SPECIAL NOTICE REGARDING JUPITER AND PERIODIC COMET SHOEMAKER-LEVY 9
--------------------------------------------------------------------
JUPITER - PERIODIC COMET SHOEMAKER-LEVY 9 (1993E)
R. M. WEST, EUROPEAN SOUTHERN OBSERVATORY, HAS MEASURED THE
NUCLEI ON CCD IMAGES OBTAINED DURING JULY 1-8 BY O. HAINAUT,
R. SCHULZ, M. CAROLLO, C. ALARD AND A. CIMATTI WITH THE
3.5-M NEW TECHNOLOGY TELESCOPE AND 1.5-M DANISH TELESCOPE.
REDUCTIONS WERE WITH THE HELP OF SOUTHERN SKY ATLAS PLATES
AND PROVISIONAL HIPPARCOS REFERENCE-STAR POSITIONS PROVIDED
BY M. PERRYMAN AND C. TURON. F. NAKANO, SUMOTO, JAPAN, HAS
COMPUTED IMPROVED ORBITS AND THE FOLLOWING TIMES (CORRECTED
FOR LIGHT TIME) FOR THE IMPACTS ON JUPITER: A = 21,
JULY 16.826 UT; B = 20, 17.113; C = 19, 17.287;
D = 18, 17.483; E = 17, 17.625; F = 16, 18.014;
G = 15, 18.308; H = 14, 18.805; K = 12, 19.425;
L = 11, 19.919; N = 9, 20.428; P = 8 (= P2 = 8B), 20.624;
Q = 7 (= Q1 = 7A), 20.831; R = 6, 21.223; S = 5, 21.627;
T = 4, 21.758; U = 3, 21.907; V = 2, 22.166; W = 1, 22.330.
COMPARISON WITH COMPUTATIONS BY P. W. CHODAS AND D. K. YEOMANS,
JET PROPULSION LABORATORY, SUGGESTS THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS
NOW AROUND +/- 0.005 DAY FOR ALMOST ALL THESE NUCLEI, THE
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY BEING MAINLY BECAUSE MOST OF THE
EARLIER OBSERVATIONS WERE REDUCED USING THE STSCI GUIDE
STAR CATALOGUE. USING THE TIDAL-DISRUPTION MODEL OF
Z. SEKANINA, CHODAS AND YEOMANS PROVIDE LESS CERTAIN IMPACT
TIMES FOR LOST AND LESS WELL OBSERVED FRAGMENTS: J = 13,
JULY 19.11 UT; M = 10, 20.24; P1 = 8A, 20.69; Q2 = 7B, 20.81.
THEY ADD THAT A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF PARTICLES BEYOND THE
EASTERN END OF THE NUCLEAR TRAIN SHOULD NOW ALREADY HAVE
BEGUN TO STRIKE JUPITER.
1994 JULY 9 (6017) BRIAN G. MARSDEN
CENTRAL BUREAU FOR ASTRONOMICAL TELEGRAMS
INTERNATIONAL ASTRONOMICAL UNION
POSTAL ADDRESS: CENTRAL BUREAU FOR ASTRONOMICAL TELEGRAMS
SMITHSONIAN ASTROPHYSICAL OBSERVATORY, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138, U.S.A.
TELEPHONE 617-495-7244/7440/7444 (FOR EMERGENCY USE ONLY)
TWX 710-320-6842 ASTROGRAM CAM EASYLINK 62794505
MARSDEN@CFA OR GREEN@CFA (.SPAN, .BITNET OR .HARVARD.EDU)
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------
Solar activity was at low levels.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be
at generally very low levels, with an occasional C flare.
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
for the past 24 hours.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled, with periods of active levels at
low to mid latitudes. Mostly active levels with periods
of minor storms are expected at high latitudes.
Event probabilities 15 jul-17 jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 jul-17 jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 60/60/30
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 65/60/30
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05
HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
regions. High latitude sites began to report increased signal
instability as the day progressed, coinciding with periods of
enhanced geomagnetic activity and high-latitude substorming.
Similar near-normal conditions are expected for the low and
middle latitudes. High latitudes should see below-normal
conditions with periods of poor propagation, particularly on
transauroral night-sector circuits.
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================
REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE
7746 N11W83 156 0040 HSX 01 001 ALPHA
7747 S14W69 142 0020 BXO 03 003 BETA
7749 S08W94 167 0010 AXX 01 001 ALPHA
7751 S14W00 073 0010 BXO 03 003 BETA
7753 S12E26 047 0020 CRO 04 006 BETA
7754 N11W07 080 0010 BXO 03 003 BETA
7755 N07W42 115 0010 BXO 03 003 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 JULY TO 17 JULY
NMBR LAT LO
NONE
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 JULY, 1994
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP
1707 1708 1709 100
POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 JULY, 1994
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED
INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN
92 N02E34 S08W03 N12W41 N25W11 089 ISO POS 014 10830A
93 N54E59 N40E09 N50W21 N60E49 054 EXT POS 018 10830A
SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- ---------
13 Jul: 0016 0021 0024 B1.2 SF 7753 S12E50
0050 0101 0107 B2.1
0202 0205 0207 B1.2 SF 7747 S13W49
0731 0735 0737 B1.1
1138 1144 1150 B3.2 SF 7746 N10W66
1555 1603 1608 B2.3
1647 1722 1732 B4.4 SF 7746 N12W69
2042 2050 2054 B1.7 SF 7749 S10W82
2146 2157 2230 B3.0 SF 7751 S12E18
REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%)
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------
Region 7746: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (22.2)
Region 7747: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (11.1)
Region 7749: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (11.1)
Region 7751: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (11.1)
Region 7753: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (11.1)
Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 003 (33.3)
Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray.
EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ ---------------------------
13 Jul: 0016 0021 0024 B1.2 SF 7753 S12E50 III
0050 0101 0107 B2.1 V
1138 1144 1150 B3.2 SF 7746 N10W66 V
1555 1603 1608 B2.3 III,V
1647 1722 1732 B4.4 SF 7746 N12W69 V
NOTES:
All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max,
and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After.
All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.
Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:
II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
III = Type III Sweep
IV = Type IV Sweep
V = Type V Sweep
Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
Loop = Loop Prominence System,
Spray = Limb Spray,
Surge = Bright Limb Surge,
EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.
** End of Daily Report **
------------------------------
Date: Fri, 15 Jul 1994 21:18:44 MDT
From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!swrinde!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 July
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
15 JULY, 1994
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 JULY, 1994
--------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 196, 07/15/94
10.7 FLUX=083 90-AVG=080 SSN=059 BKI=4332 2224 BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=B1.2 FLU1=9.5E+05 FLU10=1.4E+04 PKI=4332 3334 PAI=017
BOU-DEV=045,021,021,***,017,018,017,050 DEV-AVG=027 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= C1.1 @ 0733UT XRAY-MIN= A8.5 @ 0137UT XRAY-AVG= B2.0
NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 2220UT NEUTN-MIN= -004% @ 0920UT NEUTN-AVG= -1.4%
PCA-MAX= +0.5DB @ 1625UT PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 1925UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55267NT @ 0151UT BOUTF-MIN=55228NT @ 1749UT BOUTF-AVG=55244NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+079,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+157NT@ 2035UT GOES6-MIN=N:-066NT@ 0018UT G6-AVG=+107,+039,-023
FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,080;SESC:080,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,015,010
KFCST=3333 3333 3333 3333 27DAY-AP=015,024 27DAY-KP=3443 2322 2246 5333
WARNINGS=*SWF
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 JUL 94 was 45.0.
The Full Kp Indices for 14 JUL 94 are: 1+ 1+ 2+ 4+ 5- 5- 4- 5o
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 14 JUL 94 are: 5 5 10 34 42 40 22 45
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 15 JUL is: 2.0E+07
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 7756 (S12E59) was
assigned.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be
generally at very low levels, with occasional C-class flares.
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
for the past 24 hours.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels, with possible local
nightime sub-storming.
Event probabilities 16 jul-18 jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 jul-18 jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-Severe Storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05
HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
regions. A few brief periods of minor signal degradation may
have been observed by a few high-latitude stations (on
transauroral paths). Otherwise, near-normal conditions
prevailed. Similar conditions are expected over the next 3
days, through 18 July. Conditions should begin gradually
stabilizing on 18 July for transauroral paths.
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================
REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE
7751 S12W13 073 0010 BXO 04 003 BETA
7753 S13E13 047 0030 CRO 06 005 BETA
7754 N11W20 080 0020 BXO 03 007 BETA
7756 S12E59 001 0060 CRO 04 004 BETA
7755 N07W55 115 PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 JULY TO 18 JULY
NMBR LAT LO
NONE
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 JULY, 1994
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP
NONE
POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 JULY, 1994
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV
15/ 1625 1636 1709 LDE B3.3 44
INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN
92 N06W19 S06W19 N08W51 N27W25 093 ISO POS 016 10830A
93 N67E51 N36W10 N46W17 N67E51 050 EXT POS 011 10830A
94 S33E66 S33E66 S30E36 S27E42 009 ISO NEG 003 10830A
SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- ---------
14 Jul: 0428 0431 0433 B1.0
0844 0853 0859 C1.9 SF 7746 N10W78
1036 1042 1047 B2.1
1442 1449 1456 B1.6
1902 1903 1911 SF 7746 N12W84
1955 1959 2002 C2.3 SF S14E77
2351 2355 2359 B7.5 SF S14E73
REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%)
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------
Region 7746: 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (28.6)
Uncorrellated: 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 005 (71.4)
Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.
EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ ---------------------------
14 Jul: 1955 1959 2002 C2.3 SF S14E77 III,V
NOTES:
All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max,
and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After.
All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.
Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:
II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
III = Type III Sweep
IV = Type IV Sweep
V = Type V Sweep
Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
Loop = Loop Prominence System,
Spray = Limb Spray,
Surge = Bright Limb Surge,
EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.
** End of Daily Report **
------------------------------
Date: Sun, 17 Jul 1994 23:51:44 MDT
From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!swrinde!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 July
To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
17 JULY, 1994
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 JULY, 1994
--------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: Energetic electrons at greater than 2 MeV have become enhanced again.
The fluence values are again at moderate levels.
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 198, 07/17/94
10.7 FLUX=080.3 90-AVG=080 SSN=073 BKI=3433 2233 BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=A6.3 FLU1=2.2E+06 FLU10=3.8E+04 PKI=4434 3233 PAI=017
BOU-DEV=033,040,027,023,016,017,033,030 DEV-AVG=027 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= B1.8 @ 0059UT XRAY-MIN= A4.7 @ 2214UT XRAY-AVG= A7.9
NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 2240UT NEUTN-MIN= -004% @ 0855UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.6%
PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1920UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1835UT PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55259NT @ 2211UT BOUTF-MIN=55224NT @ 1927UT BOUTF-AVG=55239NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+132NT@ 1919UT GOES6-MIN=N:-048NT@ 2358UT G6-AVG=+104,+037,-023
FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,080;SESC:080,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,005/015,010,010
KFCST=3333 3333 2233 3222 27DAY-AP=011,010 27DAY-KP=3322 3333 2333 3222
WARNINGS=
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 JUL 94 was 30.0.
The Full Kp Indices for 16 JUL 94 are: 5o 4o 3- 5o 4- 3o 3+ 3+
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 16 JUL 94 are: 49 28 12 49 23 15 18 19
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 17 JUL is: 7.9E+08
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------
Solar activity was at very low levels.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be
at very low to low levels.
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
for the past 24 hours.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels.
Event probabilities 18 jul-20 jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 jul-20 jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01
HF propagation conditions were below-normal on transpolar
and transauroral paths. Polar and high latitude substorming
resulted in periods of moderate multipathing and associated
fading. However, conditions have begun improving and are
expected to continue improving to near-normal values on about
19 July.
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================
REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z JULY
-------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE
7751 S12W41 074 0010 AXX 01 001 ALPHA
7753 S12W16 049 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA
7754 N12W47 080 0010 BXO 04 005 BETA
7756 S12E33 000 0040 BXO 06 012 BETA
7757 N13E62 331 0160 DAO 07 004 BETA
7755 N07W81 114 PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 JULY TO 20 JULY
NMBR LAT LO
NONE
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 JULY, 1994
---------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP
0425 0425 0425 210
POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 JULY, 1994
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED
INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN
NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS
SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- ---------
16 Jul: 0012 0023 0026 B8.1
0114 0117 0119 B5.4
0126 0152 0206 B8.3
0251 0304 0313 C1.4
0546 0551 0555 B6.1
0737 0740 0743 B4.0
0749 0758 0805 B4.2
0843 0850 0902 B6.9 SF 7756 S16E53
0916 0920 0922 B5.5
1143 1148 1206 B1.6
1235 1256 1304 B2.0
1342 1346 1350 B3.0 SF N11E81
1629 1630 1632 SF 7757 N12E73
1950 2011 2020 B3.7
2250 2257 2304 B2.6
2324 2327 2330 B1.6
REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%)
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------
Region 7756: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 ( 6.2)
Region 7757: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 ( 6.2)
Uncorrellated: 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 014 (87.5)
Total Events: 016 optical and x-ray.
EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ ---------------------------
NO EVENTS OBSERVED.
NOTES:
All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max,
and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After.
All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.
Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:
II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
III = Type III Sweep
IV = Type IV Sweep
V = Type V Sweep
Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
Loop = Loop Prominence System,
Spray = Limb Spray,
Surge = Bright Limb Surge,
EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.
** End of Daily Report **
------------------------------
End of Info-Hams Digest V94 #815
******************************
